Great summary, the EBITDA margin contraction certainly isn't...

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20/08/19

20:19

Post #: 40064086
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Originally posted by SimonGr ↑

Hi Leveraged, I don’t disagree with you. Super product good. Balance sheet good. Strategy good. It’ll all come down to how well they execute (and probably also how competitors respond). I’ve just chosen to sit on the bench and observe for a while.

I was a bit surprised that the 40% EBITDA margin wasn’t provided in the pack though - and also how it (and implications of the change) were skipped over during questioning.

Re consensus forecasts ... and my concern the the SP may go lower when this sinks in ....
- todays result was spot on consensus revenue (only $50K difference) well above consensus NOPAT (consensus was only $8.3M).
- The $0.7M difference appears to me to be the treatment of sales/marketing expenses (some capitalised under the new standard vs previously expensed).... so I’m expecting FY19 NOPAT is a “met expectation”.
- For FY20, consensus was forecasting a lesser revenue rise (5% vs 10% CL1 target) and only a minor fall in NOPAT (down $300K vs my above calc of down >$2M). This is why I was concerned re SP.

So ... I suppose we’ll see how the analysts adjust forecasts over the next few days and how that effects the SP.

All the best. Simon

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Great summary, the EBITDA margin contraction certainly isn't ideal, but not really a surprise either. I honestly think this space will consolidate...

CL1 Price at posting: $1.31 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Great summary, the EBITDA margin contraction certainly isn't...

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