Just to emphasize (because someone used the dreaded "defamation" word recently, which is often intended to intimidate alternative opinion.)
And to put this in perspective, I want this company to succeed, so the opinion here is intended to be constructive.
So I’ve been looking through the investor presentation.
Glossy and superficially looks okay, but nothing really new IMO. I worry also about marketing programs that spend on rebranding rather than more clever tactics IMO that can build good-will on existing brands. (For instance when Tylenol had their packaging interference scare years ago, they didn't just change the name, which would have lost all the history, they turned it to their advantage, reversing bad-will, and made Tylenol the strong brand it is today.)
The financials concern me.
Slide 10. Annual year on year growth from 92% (2015) to 84% (2016) to 29% (2017, normalized, I guess means excluding clearance sales or write downs, not clear?) to predicted 16% - 25% (2018). Double digits for sure but that looks like a slow down to me.
Slide 11. The notes on the right do not seem to relate to anything much in the table. The P&L shows a gross profit of $0.8m on sales of $35.4m (can’t see gross profit calculated anywhere nor in the annual financials), and net $0.3m. But a profit is a profit, no problem there.
Slide 13. Here is where I am concerned. The BS shows cash of only half a million, with no other current assets (receivables match payables so cancel out). The live fish value at $32.1m is roughly what was sold this year, so can presumably result in a profit of $0.3m again, so not much cash to look forward to. Sure the prediction is that the profit per kg might go to $2.50 or $3.00, (slide 12), but in a couple or three years, so at this point only 87 cents per kilo can be counted on.
In short I see a company with a serious cash crunch.
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