SRL 12.9% 50.5¢ sunrise energy metals limited

Ann: Clean TeQ Sunrise Definitive Feasibility Study completed, page-119

  1. 1,724 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 2080
    In your post, which I replied to, #33920190 you simply stated:

    "You may check sulphide cobalt players' released feasibility study like NZC, AML etc"

    You have clearly evaded a direct answer to my reply,...... AML -- DO NOT have even a Pre DFS., they have a Preliminary Scoping Study which they are Upgrading, so it is at best spurious for comparitive purposes - which is the point I was making, your assertion (or at least a major part, as you have only mentioned 2 companies) is not based in fact, regardless of your chart, I do respect that you are perfectly within your rights to put your analysis up here. But it is a good thing to have your facts right.

    But some other facts (and information): many people assume that Sunrise is a cobalt project, that is incorrect - Sunrise is a nickel mine with cobalt credits (this is clear in the DFS). In CLQ's Pre DFS price assumption for nickel was US$7.50/lb, so price assumption there has been decreased. Sunrise will not be producing pig iron nickel, but rather the type of nickel that is suitable to derive nickel sulphate (which is not as common) for Li batteries.

    Since CLQ released their Pre DFS in Oct 2016 there have been some profound changes in the global cobalt market, I believe that cobalt will increase in price from here, due to clear underlying market fundamentals, you can argue to the contrary if you like; but my take is that US$30/lb will be a very conservative number in 2021. Generally CLQ have been conservative with their numbers (look at the US$12/lb for cobalt in Pre DFS) and I am prepared to back them in on that.

    The big difference to the Pre DFS has been CAPEX (the Pre DFS number was US$680), but the plant CLQ is building is very different to what was contemplated in 2016, the plant CLQ will build is incorporating CLQ's in house RIP Clean IX technology. CLQ believe they have a technology which will change metals processing going forward, and they (Robert Friedland, Jiang Zhaobai and Sam Riggall) are staking their reputations upon that premise, CLQ see themselves as a mining technology company - and that is completely lost on most observers - Sunrise is not just a mine at all.

    But from todays DFS
    - "The Project is forecast to deliver over US$14 billion in revenue and annual EBITDA of US$344 million over the first 25 years of operations. Average C1 cash costs of negative US$1.46/lb nickel (net of by-product credits) positions the Project to generate high margins and powerful cash flows over many decades".

    Those numbers look pretty good to me, and clearly indicate super competitive OPEX.

    The market has spoken and disappointingly had an 11.74% dislike of the DFS today, but it is early days, my sense of it, is that the CAPEX is not that scary at all, big laterite plants are notoriously expensive (the market expected a large increase and if you followed CLQ closely you would have known this), and that CLQ will be well advanced in financing discussions as well as off-take negotiations (some here may remember that RF was not at all interested in Elon Musks' pitch to him for a fixed price cobalt off-take agreement some time ago - maybe Elon is still sulking given his idea of 0% cobalt batteries and burning cars ). CLQ have consistently under promised and over delivered, they are giving themselves some elbow room on the EPC scenario and I believe that is why they are talking FID early 2019, but again it is still early days on this deal - we are talking a 25 - 40 year Project. They will hit the ground running.

    The general rule of thumb of mining costs for sulphide deposits is that they are usually always much more expensive than laterites, and that is ongoing for life of mine - much higher OPEX (with a lower CAPEX process plant), but this does vary from mine to mine., COB looks like a possible major noteable exception - unfortuneately AML will not be (but still looks like a good investment to me).

    And good luck to you over at CLA, ARL and COB
 
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