I am the first to agree that all models are wrong, some are better than others and nobody knows for certain what the future holds.
OZ Minerals is a classic example. During the Oxiana (of which I owned at the time) and Ziniflex (I still maintain that Oxiana over paid for ZFX for sure) merger, i suffered a massive dilution in my capital and the 2008 market crash did not help either.
But we make financial decisions based on the best available information at the time (IRRs, PE Ratios, Forecasts, Guidances, etc) and hope that the outcomes do not differ too far (and if so, differ favourably) from these models.
I am the first to agree that all models are wrong, some are...
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