I watched a shortish video earlier, with an analyst talking...

I watched a shortish video earlier, with an analyst talking about Lithium.

The bloke reminded me of something many people forget (some not by choice!), when they talk about future prices of various Li battery commodities.

The current EV market penetration is 2%. By this bloke's numbers (and some have them higher), by 2025 that penetration number will be 16%.

He also noted how Lithium supply is already lagging demand. We one thinks about how easy it is to mine Lithium, and how abundant it is, when compared to other Li battery inputs, like Ni and Co, it's not hard to conclude the sorts of price assumptions used in the BFS are pretty flippin' conservative.

A parallel - I've been watching the progress of renewables' costs for years, and comparing the 'debate' with the unfolding reality of costs to install renewables generation capacity, and the resultant prices charged to users.

The only 'forecasting' outfit who have got within a bull's roar of predicting how quickly renewables costs and prices have dropped (and keep dropping), is Bloomberg New Energy Finance. And, they've still lagged by a lot.

A very, very overrated caper, relying on forecasts, particularly when the arena is changing so massively and rapidly e.g. 2% penetration of EV's to 16% in less than 7 years.

And, before anyone suggests 'Hey, that's a forecast', understand how any forecast becomes more inaccurate the further down you go from the top line end product to be sold.