the level of dilution and current revenue just doesn’t stack up to much beyond 1c. Around 600m shares and very low revenue can’t justify over 2c at the moment. Should GC commercialise then that’s probably worth 3000 licenses at least (Joondy as a base case) but that would be enough for maybe a $10m Market Cap or 1.6c.. maybe if Broward goes to 10,000 licenses AND GC kicks into gear we would be able to justify 3c or $18m market cap… if those cogs don’t fall into gear in time then it’s another raise this time next year….
probably another 3 years from now before things get meaningful. Unless it all gets clicked into place a whole lot faster… there is every likelihood that the underlying business of HMD, specifically HeraCare is going to be sound and a genuine going concern, it’s just whether or not the share price will ever catch up. The options being issued just goes further into the swirling pool of dilution but will potentially add some money to the coffers at some point? Personally I’ve had 5 sets of options issued in HMD at least and none have been exercised nor exercisable.
I’m currently looking at 2 businesses to invest in and one is in medical devices, the value cap on their SAFE note is $6m and there is considerably more revenue than HMD. The other, Legal tech, has revenue over $1m and a pre money valuation of $7m with contracts coming into play quite soon. Not MOUs or LOIs but signed contracts… Dunno about HMD and the possibility of a material return. Maybe just too many shares and too slow a revenue conversion, however it is looking quite positive that the business will gain traction. 10c a share is a market cap of about $60m which is more than HMD has ever been worth. There would need to be at least $10m in revenue to get that valuation, and that is greatly beyond anything recorded. Maybe HMD is going to be a $25m business at the end of it all? So 4c might be all topped out after dilution?
Dunno mate… I’m in Bruns for the school holidays so I might just have a beer or 2 for HMD’s sake.
HMD Price at posting:
2.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
