Ann: Cleansing Notice, page-48

Thanks for the reminder about the balance to the story and portfolio weighting considerations. It's something I am grappling with.

There are some planets to line up indeed, but I see it as a video game where you get given 3-4 lives to lose. The odds to win or at least 'not lose' then become more favourable in aggregate.

1) sale of services - I think the recent G4S sale of their cash handling biz at 10.9x EBITDA is where the precedent sales multiple comes from - 10x is achievable but 6x to 8x is also a possibility (and a reasonable outcome). of course the sale value is very sensitive to EBITDA - both in terms of the EBITDA itself and the multiple (demonstrating growth means a bigger multiple, shrinking EBITDA means smaller multiple)

2) locks deal which is in discussions - could be dead (limbo) or alive (trying to understand this better) - not priced in.

3) MOD as widely publicised - higher certainty than 1, 2, 4

4) Aura Conveyor Belt tech - I think this has potential to be worth the market cap of AVA in 5 years, if trials are successful and execution comes through. But it's an example of management using existing IP to open up new verticals, and I view this very favourably. Of course, I'd assign no value to this in a base case model, pure optionality.