Thanks for the reminder about the balance to the story and portfolio weighting considerations. It's something I am grappling with.
There are some planets to line up indeed, but I see it as a video game where you get given 3-4 lives to lose. The odds to win or at least 'not lose' then become more favourable in aggregate.
1) sale of services - I think the recent G4S sale of their cash handling biz at 10.9x EBITDA is where the precedent sales multiple comes from - 10x is achievable but 6x to 8x is also a possibility (and a reasonable outcome). of course the sale value is very sensitive to EBITDA - both in terms of the EBITDA itself and the multiple (demonstrating growth means a bigger multiple, shrinking EBITDA means smaller multiple)
2) locks deal which is in discussions - could be dead (limbo) or alive (trying to understand this better) - not priced in.
3) MOD as widely publicised - higher certainty than 1, 2, 4
4) Aura Conveyor Belt tech - I think this has potential to be worth the market cap of AVA in 5 years, if trials are successful and execution comes through. But it's an example of management using existing IP to open up new verticals, and I view this very favourably. Of course, I'd assign no value to this in a base case model, pure optionality.
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Last
9.6¢ |
Change
-0.004(4.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $27.79M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
10.0¢ | 10.0¢ | 9.5¢ | $5.891K | 61.68K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 93570 | 9.3¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
10.0¢ | 61364 | 4 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 93570 | 0.093 |
2 | 250000 | 0.092 |
1 | 27000 | 0.091 |
5 | 140082 | 0.090 |
1 | 14000 | 0.089 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.100 | 61364 | 4 |
0.105 | 78579 | 2 |
0.110 | 111666 | 3 |
0.115 | 47128 | 3 |
0.120 | 14609 | 1 |
Last trade - 12.57pm 02/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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