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Ann: CMI Summit Conference Presentation, page-30

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    USB Global Research 17 June 2025
    Rare Earths
    The Robots Are Coming

    Humanoid robots another tailwind for our positive rare earths view
    UBS’ Global Research Team led by China Industrial analyst Phyllis Wang have published a
    Q-Series on the humanoid robot opportunity ahead (link). In our base case, UBS sees the
    global humanoid population growing to ~2m by 2035 before swelling to 300m by
    2050e. And with an estimated ~1.3kg NdPr per unit (~4kg NdFeB), we think humanoid
    robots could eventually comprise ~35% of total rare earth demand albeit on a 2050
    view (and likely incrementally positive for Dy/Tb demand). This thematic is yet another
    tailwind for the sector on which we remain positive following our own
    APAC Focus: Rare Earths, Common Necessity.

    Humanoid robots no longer science fiction
    Rare earths are crucial for the high-efficiency permanent magnet motors that drive
    movement of a robot. While form factors vary, we note a positive correlation between
    humanoid robot dexterity (i.e. degrees of freedom) and permanent magnet motor use.
    In this Q-Series, UBS highlight how technological advances in a number of separate
    fields (including AI, battery technology, actuator performance) have reset expectations
    for the field of humanoid robotics. Further, UBS explore how 1) aging populations, 2)
    labour shortages, 3) productivity gains and 4) improving economic rationale support the
    case for humanoid robots.

    A question of necessity
    While we concede the humanoid robot story is longer-dated, we argue that near-term
    outlook has also improved (despite a commonly-held view that fundamentals have not
    changed). We note that: 1) recent China-U.S. trade progress looks still to be lacking from
    a rare earths perspective with six-month limits in place and restrictions still on exports for
    defense applications (link), 2) ex-China supply is incrementally tighter with countries (i.e.
    India) and corporates (i.e. MP) alike increasingly aware of the strategic value of the
    commodity and looking to withhold supply, 3) the promise of increased cooperation
    between Japan and the U.S. on rare earths (link) which could see an acceleration of
    brownfield JP magnet capacity, 4) an acceleration of magnet capacity from other RoW
    players (including Neo) in response to China supply risks (link), 5) a continued
    streamlining of U.S. policy support for rare earths projects and with specific focus on
    downstream refining and magnet capacity (link). In any case, we expect that working
    capital requirements for OEMs will increase significantly going forward given the
    potential and actual supply chain disruptions we have observed (link), and also remind
    the criticality of rare earths permanent magnets for defense and military against a
    backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions (link).
 
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