Ann: CMI Summit Conference Presentation, page-30

USB Global Research 17 June 2025
Rare Earths
The Robots Are Coming

Humanoid robots another tailwind for our positive rare earths view
UBS’ Global Research Team led by China Industrial analyst Phyllis Wang have published a
Q-Series on the humanoid robot opportunity ahead (link). In our base case, UBS sees the
global humanoid population growing to ~2m by 2035 before swelling to 300m by
2050e. And with an estimated ~1.3kg NdPr per unit (~4kg NdFeB), we think humanoid
robots could eventually comprise ~35% of total rare earth demand albeit on a 2050
view (and likely incrementally positive for Dy/Tb demand). This thematic is yet another
tailwind for the sector on which we remain positive following our own
APAC Focus: Rare Earths, Common Necessity.

Humanoid robots no longer science fiction
Rare earths are crucial for the high-efficiency permanent magnet motors that drive
movement of a robot. While form factors vary, we note a positive correlation between
humanoid robot dexterity (i.e. degrees of freedom) and permanent magnet motor use.
In this Q-Series, UBS highlight how technological advances in a number of separate
fields (including AI, battery technology, actuator performance) have reset expectations
for the field of humanoid robotics. Further, UBS explore how 1) aging populations, 2)
labour shortages, 3) productivity gains and 4) improving economic rationale support the
case for humanoid robots.

A question of necessity
While we concede the humanoid robot story is longer-dated, we argue that near-term
outlook has also improved (despite a commonly-held view that fundamentals have not
changed). We note that: 1) recent China-U.S. trade progress looks still to be lacking from
a rare earths perspective with six-month limits in place and restrictions still on exports for
defense applications (link), 2) ex-China supply is incrementally tighter with countries (i.e.
India) and corporates (i.e. MP) alike increasingly aware of the strategic value of the
commodity and looking to withhold supply, 3) the promise of increased cooperation
between Japan and the U.S. on rare earths (link) which could see an acceleration of
brownfield JP magnet capacity, 4) an acceleration of magnet capacity from other RoW
players (including Neo) in response to China supply risks (link), 5) a continued
streamlining of U.S. policy support for rare earths projects and with specific focus on
downstream refining and magnet capacity (link). In any case, we expect that working
capital requirements for OEMs will increase significantly going forward given the
potential and actual supply chain disruptions we have observed (link), and also remind
the criticality of rare earths permanent magnets for defense and military against a
backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions (link).