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I agree, however sovereign risk is not enough to reassure me...

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Romiya

64 Posts.

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07/10/17

17:06

Post #: 27735300
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Originally posted by Gipp ↑

Thank you for your interesting observations on this.

The Capex for Mt Thirsty is still relatively low given the Capex of other Cobalt / Lithium mines. There's a fair contingency being built in & we may still see the Capex as low as $150 million for this project which over the mine life...plus potential increase in resource will see this operation being very efficient given its extraction process.

If you are referring to the "quality grade" being the very slight decrease in the extraction process from previously reported 0.80 to 0.73 in the Scoping Study then again minimal impact - this is also very conservative & the JV are confident of seeing it at the higher level of 0.80 but again time will tell.

I'm not overly worried about the Tenke Fungurume Mine coming on stream either. My observations of the Chinese is that they secure supply for China & China only - none of the Cobalt from this mine will see the light of day on International Markets IMO as they move to secure supply for their own EV's which they are on record to produce & be the largest producer in the World so they will need every little bit....but will still pull up short as the competition heats up.

China has an appalling mining record & has moved over the last few years to secure supply outside of China as they close hundreds of mines in their own Country for Environmental issues (not to mention the death toll) & Africa has been a happy hunting ground.

So who is going to supply the likes of Tesla....VW....Samsung.....Panasonic....etc...etc..etc....not only for EV's but for mobile phones / power tools / computers the list goes on. The fact is there will be a huge Cobalt shortage & many miners are scrambling at the moment to cover this big opportunity.

I read with interest yesterday that Artemis Minerals (ASX:ARV) have just commenced drilling for Cobalt. With all the excitement around the Pilbara "Gold Rush" at the moment and Artemis being in the thick of it I thought it interesting they lead their announcement with "Artemis starts drilling Cobalt prospects" even though there is gold & copper at these prospects they led with Cobalt, interesting marketing ploy...have a read. We also saw the launch recently of N27...another Cobalt play prospecting for the stuff in the NT.

The buyers of Cobalt - Tesla / VW / Samsung etc. etc. etc. I believe simply won't source their Cobalt from the DRC in the future, in fact many are looking elsewhere to shore up supply and actively move away from the DRC.

You see.......large International Organisations like VW / BMW / Tesla / Samsung are very much like Politicians....they spend every waking moment worried about their Brand & Reputation & simply can't afford to be seen doing something wrong like buying their Cobalt from the DRC where the President & his family control 80% of all mining activities whilst his people starve and are displaced. You may recall the Nike / sweat shop debacle in the 90's which hurt their Brand significantly and some argue they are still recovering from.

So all things considered - I respectfully disagree with your statement of "..the main selling point of the project has been wiped out....." and think the JV is well placed to capital on the opportunities with an X-factor of a Northern Neighbour adjoining its tenements.

I wish you well though with your future investment opportunities.

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I agree, however sovereign risk is not enough to reassure me that Mt Thirsty will be developed anytime soon. The speculation that China will pull-up short on cobalt is currently the only reason I would have to invest in a non-DRC producer, however I highly doubt this will be the case. We'll wait and see, I am not eager to experience another rare earth Molycorp debacle.

BAR Price at posting: 4.4¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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