A profound post Autosime. This is not funny in any way and time for online retributions between posters isn't probably called for. I have all the empathy in the world for shareholders. I'd rather be out than in.
Having said that, I think it's too good a resource for this to fall away and be worth nothing. It's just not logical. CNNC/CIC have to avoid insolvency of PDN to which my cynicism tells me that PDN holders might just come away with one less LH mine, no debt and some pretty handy otherwise assets to consider in the future. And while trying to be respectful...it's all about the money (market cap) anyway for shareholders...is it not? Don't get wedded up on a resource. If it's gone...it's gone. I think there'd be enough 'sum of parts' evidence in the market at present to suggest that $180m for a working mine (Malawi) and tier 1 prospecting assets in good jurisdictions would be approximately the current MC of $180m if bondholders, EDF consideration and facility debt can be paid out. In my opinion, it's entirely possible. My biggest caveat is of course...what is the AISC of KLK mine? If that's reasonable and has a high $3 or $4 in front of it, then I'd say be gone with the yoke around your neck (LH) and just appreciate what assets you do have.
At this moment also it's worthy of looking back. Most of us held JB in high esteem, and certainly me as a previous shareholder. So it's easy to put blame on AM. I do agree he was never the man for the job...but I think this goose was cooked before he arrived and perhaps JB left a time bomb in PDN in the event that U never recovered. Like the bankers with CDO's in the GFC. You can hear them now: "What's the chances of the housing market capitulating and people defaulting?...pfffft."
"What's the chances that the U market will tank and I'll be caught short as a totally unhedged company?"
The bankers, in general were perceived as supermen while their strategy worked, as I am sure JB was. Sadly...it was just a matter of time.
I still think that to avoid long term litigation and perhaps even 'reputational' damage, there will be a compromise struck. For mine...CNNC/CIC just want LH. That's all. Keep the rest.
What I am trying to consider as a potential investor) is: "would I buy PDN with Kalelekera mine with no debt at a reasonable price?" If it had some better forward looking prospects (Michelin and Oz Assets)...then I think so. And I'm trying to work out what KLK mine would be producing for on an AISC basis henceforth.
I know there are many of you focussing on the obvious/negative right now but I'd appreciate some response to this as I haven't been conversant in PDN for some years now. I'm big in PEN, and I'd contemplate a play in a company with the above attributes. Debt pile was always the issue in PDN not being further up the list.
Costs of KLK anyone?
Cheers
Gav
PDN Price at posting:
10.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)