Kakapo120476 Posts. 49 23/03/22 22:26 Post #: 60382327
Thought I'd begin a new thread to discuss the valuation of COB and different opinion's people may have that I could adjust my valuation with.I have completed a NPV of the BHP up to 2030 (8 years) on the assumptions of:-3500 tonnes per annum of mined cobalt beginning 2025- Cobalt average price of USD $28/lbs as found in COB investor presentation-Sulphur of 300,000 tonnes mined and sold per annum beginning 2025-sulphur price of USD $146/ tonne-All in sustaining costs of USD $12.5 beginning 2025-CAPEX investment of AUD $560m in 2024 see investor presentation-straight line depreciation of 10% per annum-shares on issue with all options converted ~233m-discount rate of 10%*This does not include waste stream project but I will attempt to make a separate NPV in a while with this project. Any input regarding this project in terms of size, CAPEX, and timeframe would be appreciated. I know that it would triple the Co resource but all other assumptions regarding CAPEX and AISC will be wild guesses based on the BHP.I have gotten a NPV of AUD $1,442,247,458 for the BHP which equates to a share price of $6.17. This is roughly in line with COB's own project valuation.Now for dividends, assuming the company will begin paying dividends in 2027(when CAPEX has been re-couped) a lower and upper bound of 30% and 50% of profit distribution has been calculated.202730% of profits distributed, dividend of $0.40/share50% of profits distributed, dividend of $0.67/share203030% of profits distributed, dividend of $0.54/share50% of profits distributed, dividend of $1.07/shareAssuming a high dividend yield of 10%, in 2030 we get a share price between $5.40 and $10.70, which is inline with the NPV of the project.
