STA (ASX) Ann: Coburn DFS Delivers Strong Financial Returns

Originally posted by 2ic: ↑

Hi Seals

To be clear I am not accusing STA of gilding the lily, simply that in my experience it happens all the time. I hate to remember the number of companies that have gone out backwards while spruiking their projects positive credentials in a less than honest manner. Call it exageration, call it positive spin, call it emphasising the positives while forgetting to mention the fatal flaws it doesn't matter. What matters to me is looking for any fatal flaws or inaccuracies to guide me getting in or getting out of investments in a timely manner. Nearly every project is released with great headline numbers and look like a bargains, otherwise juniors move on tot he next. Reality is very few actually go the distance because the sausage doesn't match the sizzle.

To be clear, the headline numbers (NPV, IRR, revenue to cost ratio per tonne of VHM production etc) look fantastic for Coburn. The capex is lower for a higher NPV over almost the same mine life (extension scoping study included) than Thunderbird if everything is correct and realistic, yet STA's capex is 25% of SFX. STA has the Tanzanian assets to boot.

I'm doing what everyone else should be doing right now. Looking at the eye-watering good returns from this seemingly tier 1, fully permitted project and wondering why and how such a stray dog has been turned into a blue ribbon pedigree pooch. Why, what am I missing, is this for real, wtf with the lack of market interest?

Cheers

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You're spot on in your approach 2ic.

Lack of market interest. I'm used to it by now and expect it.

Firstly, how much interest is there in sand generally? It's not the most alluring sector!

Specifically STA does have factors that are prevailing over and above the current knowledge of the assets. Eg Coburn, it's already been around the block so there's a bunch of pros that have seen it before and disregarded for higher grade projects and know about the previous failure to fund. They are stale and need re-energising. Secondly there's a new generation that probably know little of it. Either way Luke has work to do to educate about Coburn as it stands now. I don't like it but I think it's right for the market to hold off until they see the dollars lining up to build - fool me once etc. For what it's worth I'm a long term holder and supporter but my own attitude to Coburn is to value it at $0 which is what the company did when writing off the expenditure a number of years ago. Ie it's dead until Luke pulls off a resurrection. (Just a little Easter reference)

There was momentum developing around Tanzanian assets until the President Megafuli, went mega foolishly populist and derailed their entire mining industry over a royalty battle with Acacia mining. And with that, quite correctly, the sensible and not locked in dumped every Tanzanian stock. Getting on to 18 months to 2 years later, companies are only now starting to recover. WKT is a Tanzanian based peer who went through similar.

By the way, on Coburn mine life. If the extension gets the permits it needs, it's a 40 year project that actually improves in the extension years as that zone is under lower overburden and has consistent even slightly better grades of hms. That's not the usual trend.