Ann: Coburn Project Commissioning of WCP Advancing Rapidly, page-46

I read through some STA releases/pressos recently this morning and LG has done a bang-up job selling the company, but it does concern me some people miss the nuance in much of the sales pitch.

Quote : Strandline preparing to make first shipment of concentrate in the coming quarter; Each shipment indicatively valued at ~A$10m at current spot prices, for ~10,000t FOB shipment size

Firstly, the first few shipments are a mixed wet plant HMC only for early cashflow while the dry plant is being finished ( 3 months worth?). For starters, whoever has agreed to take the mixed HMC will be asking for minimum 25% discount to spot basket value. Secondly, by the time that first shipment is full to leave, who thinks spot prices will still be at Aug levels? Further, the mixed HMC processor is taking price risk on to buy FOB in Geraldton but not be sure what market they will sell finished products once they have received the HMC in China and processed the con etc?

I'm too tight to pay for professional market pricing updates but blind Freddy can see the min sands pricing boom is coming off and likely to fall rapidly into the northern winter. Spot pricing can be volatile in both directions, and spot is not always in high demand if off-takers have decided their off-take contracted volumes will be sufficient now. Actually, more likely to play hardball and push down hard on spot prices which feed into quarterly contract pricing arrangements...

Full disclosure I hold SFX not STA, so maybe some bias, but I can't see how STA are going to hold mid-50s into the market other min sand miners are valued for falling prices and material uncertainty. Winter is coming for everyone imo, growth option or no.