Ann: Coburn Project Commissioning of WCP Advancing Rapidly, page-60

SFX (50 % of Thunderbird project, with Yansteel) remains pre-financing, and therefore pre FID. The unusual feature is they have commenced material civils work, with around 38% of construction claimed as completed.

They may not yet have committed to long lead items.

SFX targets production in Q1 of 2024, so roughly 15 months behind Coburn.

2ic has a minority view on ms prices, as early as this coming northern winter, though not sure what quantum decline he foresees. Interestingly, SFX CEO said just this month they are "well positioned to deliver product into a buoyant market that continues to experience supply constraints across the globe". That does indeed seem to be the majority opinion.

Comparisons between companies at different stages of evolution are fraught, but SFX appears to be trading flat, not so different to how STA traded pre financing and FID.

If I was as bearish as 2ic, I may not hold STA, but I would really struggle to hold SFX.

If ms prices come down rapidly, perhaps SFX should mothball for a year or so, and maybe they would be 'competing' more with the Coburn expansion case.

Or maybe there is room for both, particularly as the 'supply' story is not static supply, but rather includes declining production capabilities.