Yeah, I've been looking at those CAG demand charts for min sands for years. Funny thing is global production never grows to match demand predictions. Not that demand at lower prices is not present...
The classical economic relationship between demand-supply-price is a good place to start. Beyond minor ST swing changes of inventories (suppliers and consumers) consumption can only equal supply. Demand then drives the price higher or lower to 'clear' the market. Underlying demand rises and falls inversely with price due to affordability and substitution etc. What I see looking back is a fairly steady supply of min sand products, +/- periods of growth, with price being the clearing variable to match that supply with demand. Take this July 2022 TZMI zircon supply chart going back to 2010 (from Astron, ASX:ATR).
Supply has bounced along and off a top of 1200tpa for the past decade, ipso facto zircon demand/consumption is matched +/- inventory changes. The price of zircon (and other min sand products) has oscillated significantly over that period to clear the market, espcially since the post GFC, Chinese driven commodity boom in 2011-12.
TZMI are the experts, though they do get paid by clients for opinions and businesses are generally supportive of their clients. You will notice the above zircon supply chart does not predict what new supply is coming on, just how supply is falling from existing mines ex-new supply. Same chart STA. SFX and all the rest like roll out but a bit misleading don;t you think? Surely new supply is what it's all about ...
STA Price at posting:
50.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)