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There is no forecast for EBITDA in Q1 FY22 at the moment....

  1. 75 Posts.
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    There is no forecast for EBITDA in Q1 FY22 at the moment. Outlook does state the following, my notes are below them:
    - $6.0m in backlog and anticipated order for Technology Division expected to be deferred to FY2022.
    This includes around ~$3m of IMOD contract which from what I recall has a very high profit margin due to distribution model.
    - Generate meaningful revenue from partial conversion of Aura-IQ sales pipeline.
    Aura-IQ has been completeing Proof of Value contracts that are going quite well with high ROI for companies using them. I believe around 10 POV trials are planned to be completed and partial conversion could mean anywhere from $5m to $20m. My estimate at the moment is around $10m given the ROI and the CAPEX/OPEX model but could be wrong. My estimate is based on the 10 POV trials and around a conservative estimate of $50m addresable market and conservative 20% conversion rate. AVA group had an announcement where I believe they had a conversion rate of 30%. Not sure how much percentage of that revenue would be recurring revenue (OPEX).
    - New client wins and higher contracted customer spend to drive Services Division revenue growth in FY2022
    No idea on dollar value of this but given Rob's positive outlook and saying development is going strong, as well as the fact the nature of Services Division means if they perform well, the client will stay with them, I would say that the revenue would grow naturally whenever they get additional client wins
    - Leverage BQT's key distributor partners to drive sales in the US and Europe
    They have partnered with two industry leaders, ASSA ABLOY and dormakaba. Don't think though this will affect FY2022 outlook too much as this is already in place and will just grow naturally
    - Expand long-term maintenance contracts and remote servicing solutions to grow annual recurring revenue
    Have around $3.4m of maintenance contract with IMOD in the pipeline, although this is after the 3 year warranty. No idea what maintenance contracts would look like but to me this shows that maintenance contracts are high dollar value opportunities AVA can convert

 
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