CKA 3.57% 8.7¢ cokal limited

Ann: Cokal's BBM Coal Haulage Road Update, page-166

  1. 88 Posts.
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    Another perspective.
    At At todays SP, the current Enterprise Value of Cokal has increased by over 200 percent since July 2021.
    More importantly, de-risking of the logistics has added much more value to this business than the Market Cap suggests, (IMO).
    More de-risking and evidence thereof is required to prove maintainable earnings and name plate production of 2Mtpa due in 2024.
    The NPV of the name plate production is claimed by Cokal to be between $AUD400M and $AUD1.8B. Even the lower number is well over double the current Enterprise Value. On face value, if we apply a risk adjustment factor of say 50% to $400M NPV then an Enterprise Value of circa $160M looks fair, IF you believe the NPV of $400M. Cokal looks cheap if you believe in the business, the management at an NPV of $1.8B.

    However, are we not just scratching the surface with an NPV of 2Mtpa? It appears Indomet has the other side of the Volcano. Not sure how much they have in M&I Resource or even if it's fair to compare. Cokal has a combined footprint of circa 33,000 square kilometers (BBM + TBAR) if I am not mistaken. The resource only appears to be 2-3m in depth. Yet it is the equivalent of a 1 km wide road between Palm Beach, Sydney NSW and Canberra in the ACT. Apologies for being Sydney centric. Alternatively imagine an area between Palm Beach - Parramatta and Manly.

    Room for improvement. Cokal would not exist without the $20m loan from Mr Chin. Management and BOD has done a great job of pulling CKA out of an un-fundable fire and adding enormous value by de-risking logistics. However, if Cokal wants to compete with other Met Coal businesses on the ASX like STN then Cokal arguably should provide equivalent updated market data by way feasibility studies. Either that or the dividends might outpace the share price.

    Not investment advice, just my opinion.

 
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