I would like to see AB1 finally be recognised for it's great value, but why would this quarter be any different to every other great quarter and cause a re-rate? Remember this will be the December quarter, and will only show revenue from CDH and their older games. They haven't really released anything much between Sept-December 2018. Therefore, I'd expect perhaps another $3 million revenue, and because of new game developments, maybe even a loss for the quarter.
It's the March quarter that will attract more attention imo.
Still, I wish AB1 got that value-hype that pot stocks etc got in 2017-2018 and I'd love to see AB1 rise above $100m market cap, but I've been disappointed by the lack of interest so far (surely big investors know about AB1, they just don't care?).
However, based on an annual spend of around $8.09m per year (Sept 2017-Sept 2018) I'd add another $4m in costs due to new acquisitions and projects, but also assume when CDH releases on Android revenue from CDH and other apps reaches around $4.5 million per quarter, there's $18m in revenue plus $11m from iClick = $29m in total revenue for 2019 in my guess.
Take costs of $12.09m and revenue of $29m = $16.91m in profit.
Therefore EPS = $0.0248
At current prices of $0.098 we have a P/E ratio by end of 2019 of 3.95
That's stupidly low. So lets look for a more reasonable P/E for a growing tech stock. Say 20 P/E? Given safe vlue chips sit between 8 and 15. A small cap spec stock with a P/E of 20 is great. So that gives us what?
49.6c per share for a P/E of 20 based on my above assumptions.
Really we need to see what December revenue was to see if CDH on iOS is still doing okay. If we are still pulling $3m total for quarterly revenue, then my estimate of jumping to $4.5m with the Android CDH and the new Sandbox + Masterchef etc, seems reasonable.
I'm not sure the market will ever wake up and give us 49c.
But in my opinion 25c is certainly possible in the future.
But when will the market actually care about AB1??!
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