AB1 abarta resources limited

Ann: Collaboration with major e-commerce blockchain WAX, page-25

  1. 2 Posts.
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    Everything will be easier to discuss once we know the Q4 results, but you asked "what chance do you give of AB1 not reaching that EPS this year?"

    Well my EPS of 2.4cents were based on revenue of $29 million and profit of $17million. 

    Now profit is hard to predict because we don't know how costs will increase/change this year.

    So EPS may be slightly off, but my revenue figure is, in my opinion, fairly solid and so I give AB1 an 85% chance to reach EPS of 2.4cents this year (assuming two things: 1. Costs aren't insane, and do in fact leave $15m+ in profit.    2. They don't issue another heap of shares. EPS is based on current market size, if they keep handing out shares, that EPS gets harder to reach).

    However, let me just show how conservative my calculations are:

    In Q1 AB1 made $3.37m
    In Q2 AB1 made $3.60m
    In Q3 AB1 made $2.90m

    Obviously in 10 days when Q4 hits we will have a better understanding of current trends, but lets say AB1 makes $3m per quarter from their older portfolio (CDH iOS, Crazy Kings, Thomas etc). So $3m per quarter locked in.

    Then in the Pixowl announcement it says "Pixowl generated A$2.46 million revenue in the first half of 2018"

    So per quarter (lets just split the Half Yearly in 2, even though I agree small discrepancies might occur between quarters) we're looking at Pixowl generating $1.23m or so per quarter. 

    That means you have an ALMOST guaranteed $3m + $1.23m = $4.23m per quarter. 

    That does not include additional expected revenue from CDH Android, the new Sandbox 3D game, the other Pixowl games, Beast Quest and any other new products coming out in 2019.

    So I see an almost guaranteed, in my opinion, $4.23m x 4 quarters = $16.92m annual revenue without iClick

    Then you add "initial" revenues of $11m (sounds like it may be higher, but lets stick with the initial revenue) from iClick and you have $28m in revenue for 2019. Without accounting for Beast Quest, CDH Android, Sandbox 3D etc adding even more revenue....

    Anyway, that's where I am at. 
 
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