Theoretical increase from uplift in REO pricing from Post #:
74791617 dated 17/07.
Pricing taken from SMM and converted to USD at todays exchange rate
Again note that post and the excerpts below and just my estimates - but it for demonstration purposes it allows arbitrary and consistent view of rough increase of revenue due to price whilst holding all other variables constant. As to whether the revenues and or profit estimates are of accuracy people can refer to my previous postings of the last 4 years in regards to their derivation and replicability to studies.
17/07
01/08
Slightly lower overall than it was a fortnight ago as some REO elements dropped until the last day or so.
View attachment 6357885Viability at current pricing is key.
Above simulates a ~4000ppm head grade and recoveries from recent announcements. (noting those recoveries utilise high grade resource which typically do recovery at better rates than the REO at say 2000-3000ppm avg.
Value attractiveness for me is that VMM continue to edge towards an economic viability similar to that of MEI - but 1/4th the market cap. People can argue about feasibility studies and how one can make figures look more attractive and that is true. But in the end feasibility is just a study on paper. The importance is what can be reflected in reality.
From a market perception i agree VMM can probably learn from it and probably improve the metrics here and there. But semantics aside actual real productive revenues will IMHO be largely similar. Therefore i'm more interested at how the market continues the 1/4th market cap valuation. Won't make sense to me unless MEI real EBITDA/NPV/IRR is 4 times higher.
MEI's SS despite markets perception and reaction therein basically states viability at current prices. Current prices would have almost every other project globally underwater.
Bearish on either of these stocks and IMO you're bearish Rare Earths - which is fine people should just be consistent in their investment hypothesis if so and less time on the tick for tack.
As prices increase/decrease can continue to share what/any change to hypothetical revenue.
REO prices will largely drive the entire sector - but my contingency with VMM is that there's still a disconnect in MC stock to stock. That's with factoring the development cycle as both aren't vastly different. If i'm wrong (and i might be), it means I'm wrong on both and MEI is very overvalued. (Which is not my opinion).
Once the VMM study releases and IMHO it's largely similar in terms economics (possibly better on paper but lots of ways to make that happen) it's quite a few less excuses for the market to place the 75% discount on MC. Even at 50% i.e. ~100M MC still 100% upside from here.
Hope everyone is well. Happy investing wherever people chose.
SF2TH
(20min delay)