I'm increasingly pessimist about the short to medium SP for COI.
Yes, its true, the East Coast, particularly Victoria needs more gas, and the shortage will become more critical by winter 2025 and beyond - but as the gas pipeline from Qld to NSW and Vic is operating at maximum capacity during winter = peak usage, but only operates at half capacity during the non winter periods - see Macrobusiness for details)
So, hows the Qld gas going to get South of the border above current gas pipeline flows - it can't and wont.
In a logical world, gas would be seen as indispensable, to the chemical and fertiliser industries, and as a bridge to "Net Zero" (by replacing coal in current coal fired generators, achieving a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions - this is how the IOUSA achieved such stunning lower CO2 emissions ).
To achieve this, there would need to be, massive storage south of the border, that would be filled by running the current pipeline at full capacity 'off peak' .... but thats not going to happen let alone building an additional pipeline costing billions.
So the madness of importing LNG gas to Victoria is the economically the most logical thing to do ??
All around the world hard line ' woke ' climate ideology is gradually giving way to harsh economic and political reality - Net Zero is not going to be achieved by "political decree" and these destructive, doomed to fail policies will fall by the wayside, but not before many billions have been wasted, and India and China have established a new world order, while our antiquated and energy deprived industries fall by the wayside.
This doesn't mean I don't believe in climate change, nor that India and China also don't either !
It seems to me that COI's only chance of a better SP is by being acquired by big brother STO, sooner rather than later.
But STO seems preoccupied with M&A of itself and some other multinational - Mahalo and hence COI are very much on the back burner. For now, I've changed my sentiment from BUY to HOLD ... but will exit if a better opportunity emerges.
Perhaps the companies more likely to benefit from the (unnecessary) Victorian gas shortage are the likes of COE (?) which are regional producers (?)
(20min delay)