Potts I can all but guarantee you know more about NWE than I. No doubts there especially since I only pop past every now and then to keep tabs on how things are going these days.
You are probably right in being confident in Arrowsmith - it may one day fill the gas needs for WA. But that doesn't necessarily mean NWE shareholders will be better off for the experience.
Arrowsmith is progressing terrifically ... for AWE and Bharat. They have other interests and are not concerned with timeframes. It's in their best interest to take things slow, collect as much data as possible before proceeding in order to give a higher probability of success. The cost of Arrowsmith to those two is insignificant. AWE have a 44% slice of the pie and only have to sign the cheque book every so often when NWE management decide to spend some money on something other than their own inflated salaries.
NWE are a company relying heavily on Arrowsmith. Despite only having a ~28% slice of the pie you must also consider that they are paying for the salaries that look after the place and progress the project. They don't have the luxury of time. The more time they take, the more time admin costs have to eventually whittle the company down to nothing.
"Take things slow" was the motto of A2. 3 years later and it doesn't appear as though the motto has changed for A3.
If/when the time comes that NWE are in a position to ramp up Arrowsmith into a producing well (in 2-4years time?) they'll be bought out by Bharat or AWE for a song. Holders may recoup a fraction of their losses at this time, but it'll be nothing compared to 3 years go and possibly nothing even compared to today.
The track record speaks for itself. NWE own too little of Arrowsmith for it to ever generate wealth for their shareholders. Management don't care. They don't need to care - they're getting paid with the shareholders money. NWE have no control over their own destiny despite the irony of being the operators.
AWE/Bharat will reap the rewards.
Just my 0.5cents.
PS: That's not to say money can't be made on NWE. Trading the short term blips could be very profitable if you're into that sort of game.
NWE Price at posting:
0.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
