HMX (ASX) Ann: Commencing Preliminary Discussions

Originally posted by patricus: ↑

"HMX will raise money" yeah but ... at what cost?

Think about how much longer HMX can go without further capital injection - not far.
OK, what do CNB want?
Access and land?

OK, so how do they get it from HMX - Merger talks?
It's one potential way to get it but as you can see from their falling share price, it is going to hurt them to do it this way.
There are other ways - waiting for HMX to run out of capital is one, HMX can go back to market but after nosebleed prices they paid last time and sp price before current action it would be a pyrrhic victory, and diluting 42% a year is pretty terminal bleed when coupled with poor drill results.

I think HMX know this and have few options and HMX have approached CNB. If you look at cui bono it's obviously HMX so I'm guessing they are doing the chasing.

If I was CNB I'd be happy to listen to HMX talk - maybe they'll get really desperate and CNB would get a good bargain.
Even if they don't, while HMX are talking they are not focused on drilling

Now look at the announcements
CNB talk in their announcement about Preliminary discussions, Potential Corporate Transaction, No Certainty Any Transaction Will Eventuate.
HMX talk in their announcement about Confidential discussion, Potential Merger.

See the difference yet?They are both in the same discussion but view it in totally different ways.
Time favours CNB not HMX. HMX may be thinking in terms of Merger but I'm pretty sure CNB are thinking in terms of Transaction - eg I'll give you some cash for some holdings. Meanwhile the bleed continues.

Expand

Originally posted by patricus: ↑

"HMX will raise money" yeah but ... at what cost?

Think about how much longer HMX can go without further capital injection - not far.
OK, what do CNB want?
Access and land?

OK, so how do they get it from HMX - Merger talks?
It's one potential way to get it but as you can see from their falling share price, it is going to hurt them to do it this way.
There are other ways - waiting for HMX to run out of capital is one, HMX can go back to market but after nosebleed prices they paid last time and sp price before current action it would be a pyrrhic victory, and diluting 42% a year is pretty terminal bleed when coupled with poor drill results.

I think HMX know this and have few options and HMX have approached CNB. If you look at cui bono it's obviously HMX so I'm guessing they are doing the chasing.

If I was CNB I'd be happy to listen to HMX talk - maybe they'll get really desperate and CNB would get a good bargain.
Even if they don't, while HMX are talking they are not focused on drilling

Now look at the announcements
CNB talk in their announcement about Preliminary discussions, Potential Corporate Transaction, No Certainty Any Transaction Will Eventuate.
HMX talk in their announcement about Confidential discussion, Potential Merger.

See the difference yet?They are both in the same discussion but view it in totally different ways.
Time favours CNB not HMX. HMX may be thinking in terms of Merger but I'm pretty sure CNB are thinking in terms of Transaction - eg I'll give you some cash for some holdings. Meanwhile the bleed continues.

Expand

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	183842	3.9¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

183842

3.9¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
4.0¢	49625	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

4.0¢

49625

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	183842	0.039
1	150000	0.038
1	137800	0.037
1	493350	0.036
2	32857	0.035

No.

Vol.

Price($)

183842

0.039

150000

0.038

137800

0.037

493350

0.036

32857

0.035

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.040	49625	1
0.041	47544	1
0.042	270000	3
0.043	15000	1
0.045	165000	3

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.040

49625

0.041

47544

0.042

270000

0.043

15000

0.045

165000

(20min delay)
Last 3.9¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $34.56M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
4.0¢	4.0¢	3.9¢	$7.018K	179.9K

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