To be honest LongTony, have you ever come across an ASX listed company
not be bullish around what they are doing? Their job is to make the company a success and sell that to investors. I know some on here recall Syntonic as a prime example. "Billion dollar valuations, Microsoft, Verizon etc" All to dwindle into a shell company again with the Australian cash in their pockets back in the US. They also had 2 main products they were selling and were very bullish on their deals. The better part of Lumos is that it is a tangible product we can account direct sales to.
$150K is a good initial start - but from what I was reading, was over a 2 week span. Extrapolated would be just shy of $4Million a year if continued at that figure.
I think it just needs to simply be identified - how many boxes of the product would be required to have a reasonable inventory by the medical offices and what does that look like? If you took the ViraDX sales of $150,000 / $350 per box (Mercedes Scientific price) then that's just under 430 boxes. You would think that a number of 100-200 individual tests per doctors office would be a sufficient initial order to cover a winter period, so in essence, 4-8 boxes per order. But is the $150,000 the Lumos split?
My napkin numbers would suggest around 50-60 odd practices / offices ordered stock in that short period of time. There are 230,000 individual practices in the US.
$300,000 in revenues for FY23 in the Europe agreement with Henry Schein etc. 50% profit margin? So $600,000 in total gross sales?
$150,000 in the US from ViraDX alone so far (2 week period); 50% profit margin? $300,000 gross sales?. Pre sales of FebriDX received also. Both similarly priced. We know the US market will be substantially larger than the European market, but by how much?
Questions are:
- What is the target percentage of offices they seek the product to be in the US? 5%, 10%, 20%, 50%?
- How quickly would the stock levels purchase dwindle? Is it going to be the go to device for respiratory checks and prescribing of drugs? Are multiple orders going to be received and how quickly?
- What are the sales levels across the globe outside of the US? This has been in Europe, UK and Canada already for some time - what is the uptake over the last 6-12 months? Appears bugger all compared to recent sales for the US. Is this being expanded further?
Will be interesting in the next quarterly and/or annual report to see where things are at.
