I can understand you have some reservations with regards to the MD if he burnt you in the past. But most of the concerns you put forward (expansion plans, cash flow black-holes, plans for CR) seem to come from thin air. I just don't know where you get this information from.
MOY have informed that the nameplate capacity of the plant is 1.5Mtpa. However, based on initial studies/tests, it looks like the plant can handle 1.7Mtpa. Is this what you are referring to as "expansion plans"? If so, there is no requirement for additional investment. The only requirement is the additional electricity etc.
MOY also informed that the plant should be able to produce a minimum of 78koz per year. Depending on grade and throughput MOY could produce up to 98koz per year (again, no additional investment required to achieve this). Furthermore, the higher the grade/throughput is, the lower the C1 costs per oz will be.
So, lets consider an annual production rate of 90koz:
Costs per year (90koz):
C1 (90,000 x 800) = 72 M/AUD Royalties (90,000 x 52) = 5 M/AUD Corp Overheads (90,000 x 56) = 5 M/AUD -------- Total costs per year before interest/tax/exploration 82 M/AUD --------
Other costs per year: Exploration: 10 M/AUD Interest on loan first 1-2 years: 4 M/AUD -------- Total costs per year (not incl. tax): 96 M/AUD ========
I am no accountant, so it is possible I have missed something in my calculations above (and, obviously, some of the numbers I have used are guesstimates).
MOY Price at posting:
55.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
