The market was willing to pay $1.50-$2 last year when FDA...

The market was willing to pay $1.50-$2 last year when FDA approval was expected by the end of 2025 and first sales perhaps early to mid 2026. I.e the market was buying at $1-$2 last year around 1-1.5 years before expected post FDA approval sales
Now, six months later, it appears that FDA approval might be pushed back by a year, although that is a pure guess and we should get more on that tomorrow. If it is pushed back by up to a year, then we might now be around 2 years from post FDA sales instead of around 1.5 years out when the stock traded up to $2 last year.
Seeing as the sp is now in the low 40c range, it seems to me a much better buy at this price, 2 years out from post FDA approved sales, than it was at $1.50-$2 and 1.5 years from post FDA sales. However the fact that significant sales may still occur through this US 503a in the first half of next year, that surely makes it more attractive still at this sp.
Investors are happy to buy resource stocks years ahead of first production. The same applies to buying tech and healthcare stocks years ahead of first cash flow. Opthea reached a staggering market cap of $1.5bill last year even before the trial outcome was known. Now they have failed to show any benefit using their drug, which is a completely different situation to LTP which has shown the safety and efficacy but also that Spontan is superior to current options and will likely disrupt the market. Current pessimism seems crazy to me at this sp level and a market cap now around $84mill FULLY diluted for all options and performance rights - with around $30mill cash. Enterprise value is around $50mill. If this news came out when the sp was still around $2, then I'd expect a big drop. However from 40-50c, I think the sp has already factored in much worse news than what we got today. So I took the chance that today was the final capitulation selling ahead of more clarity during tomorrow morning's webinar. I could be wrong but it now seems like a very good buy and hold regardless.

It's worth remembering why some of us bought in the first place.
Using a market size of US$4.5bill and assuming only a 2% market share, revenue would be US$90mill. A 90% margin leaves a gross profit of US$81mill. That's A$125mill at 65c exchange rate. Allowing overheads, R&D etc of 15% of GP or A$18.6mill leaves a NPBT of A$106mill or $74mill after tax.
That's considerably more than the current enterprise value which seems extremely cheap to me. Even a PE of only 15 would give me a mc target of $1.1bill or a share price target of $6.42. That's thirteen times upside potential off just a 2% market share. Given the potential to disrupt the market with a superior product that works in 12 minutes even on a full stomach as opposed to up to an hour on competitive products that should be taken only on an empty stomach, 2% might prove quite conservative and certainly allows for strong year on year growth for many years.
There is not just the potential to grow market share from just 2% but the market is expected to grow to US$6bill within a couple of years.
The chart below shows the market is probably already larger than the $4.5bill I used and on its way to 6.6bill by 2030. 6.6bill is 46% growth on the 4.5bill I used. Compound that 46% onto the 2% potentially reaching 4% market share and you're looking at potential revenue growth from US$1.1bill to US$3.2bill. Do your own math on what the sp could do on those numbers.
If you think 2% market share is too high, adjust accordingly. Maybe it needs a couple of years to hit that level but growth after the first year's sales could be exponential from a lower starting point.