I have a theory for AJM development in the next weeks. Starting...

I have a theory for AJM development in the next weeks.
Starting point is cash. According to CF report for Q1 2018 at the end of Q1 they had AUD 63M in cash. In the same report they forecast an outflow of 34M for Q2. That leaves as of end of June 29M in the bank.
In Q3 starts production and first shipment. But I doubt that we will already be CF positive in Q3. So that leaves not much of a cushion.
Management will want to avoid a further capital raise and I don’t know how easy it is to get additional loans at this stage. Solution: off take agreement Stage 2

Hint from the commissioning update (Ann 22.05.2018) page 2:
“The Board intends to make a Final Investment Decision on the Stage 2 expansion project work before the end of the financial year which, if approved, will provide a continuous workfront for the Stage 1 project team to transition to.”

So Management sets it up:

1. Stage 2 DFS released. Check.
2. Resource upgrade. Check.
   (The resource upgrade. was rather a disappointment to my taste. They lowered the cut-of grade from 0,43% to 0,40%. On page 14 of the Resource upgrade announcement they have a chart on how the resource size varies according to the cut-off grade chosen. To me it looks as if almost all the volume of the resource upgrade is down to lowering the cut-off grade.)
   
3. Find off take partner/agreement. Lets see. Where would I find somebody to give me cash for Lithium. Maybe a management trip to China….. Check.
   
   So I am hoping for an announcement on off take for Stage 2 anytime soon.