Given that Arafura is currently producing nothing and is about...

Given that Arafura is currently producing nothing and is about to take on debt, the current market capitalization is somewhat understandable.

However, the market cap is likely to rise significantly over the next 2.5 years and beyond. An EBITA well north of 500 million should produce reasonable dividends in the future. The feds are also looking at a reduced tax rate for critical miners. The share price will presumably end up somewhat akin to that of Lynas, which is more than 10 times what ARU is today, when Lynas is much more affected by low current RE prices. Their SP was around $7 not so long ago, more than 20x what the ARU SP is now.

I imagine that the next couple of years will see a consistent trend in SP upwards, interspersed with spikes on positive news and small troughs on profit taking. Once sales and profit happen in late 2026 and beyond, and other ventures and processing of external ore also happens, ARU might eventually earn the “Son of Fortesque” title that some have bandied about.