Thanks for the reference - I have taken the liberty of reprinting it below.
The article / GS projection does not factor in BHP's nickel plan closure or any similar problems that might arise, including the closures of mines that have become uneconomic or marginal oeprators. It appears to be based on best case availability scenarios - GS have been an active mouthpiece for global hedge funds & shorters.
Goldman Predicts Zinc Will Rise From 2010 as Supply Declines By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen
June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Zinc will rise from 2010 as supply declines, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts said.
Prices will average $2,315 a metric ton in 2010 and $2,535 in 2011, from a revised $2,139 this year, London-based Peter Mallin-Jones wrote in a report dated yesterday.
``The depletion of significant zinc miners from 2010 onwards will put the zinc mining industry under substantial pressure to develop sufficient new mines to meet likely demand,'' Mallin-Jones wrote.
Goldman revised down this year's average by 11 percent and next year's by 13 percent to $2,061 a ton to reflect current oversupply of the metal. Three-month zinc prices have declined 19 percent so far in 2008, averaging $2,345 a ton.
Copper and aluminum will benefit next year from supply curbs and sustained high energy prices, Goldman said.
2008 2009 2010 2011 Aluminum New $2,862 $2,901 $2,744 $2,480 Old $2,894 $3,050 $2,775 $2,400 -1% -5% -1% 3%
Copper New $8,211 $9,388 $8,710 $7,440 Old $8,491 $9,480 $8,225 $7,000 -3% -1% 6% 6%
Lead New $2,291 $1,866 $1,738 $1,433 Old $2,939 $2,531 $1,875 $1,430 -22% -26% -7% 0%
Nickel New $24,522 $20,732 $20,945 $22,598 Old $28,872 $31,414 $26,000 $21,500 -15% -34% -19% 5%
Zinc New $2,139 $2,061 $2,315 $2,535 Old $2,412 $2,363 $2,350 $1,900 -11% -13% -1% 33%
4YIO - NFA
OXR Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
