Thanks Access and everyone else for contributing to the...

Thanks Access and everyone else for contributing to the discussion.

"The big difference between your numbers and how the market would view this stock is there are two important ways to get the valuation."
"2. A risked NPV, which is the lens most investors look through for emerging E&P type companies and something you should add to your numbers. Essentially that requires a discount through all the heavy risk areas."

I fully agree and if you look at my share price targets based on future cash flow, those targets are where I see the stock once it is in production - not now or in three months. I have stated other near term targets such as into the "20's" before the release of the DFS based on that fact - that there is risk to price in ahead of production. 20c is a small fraction of where I expect this to be once it's producing (80c plus) so I am applying very heavy risk factors. I also applied a risk factor of a fairly standard 10% discount rate to my NPV calculations. On the subject of NPV, it's worth considering that while miners use NPV calculations based on expected mine life of a project, for A4N, an NPV based on 15, 20 or even 30 years cash flow, is really not sufficient because there is no mine to be depleted. Feed stock supply is unlimited.

"I think some of the PE assumptions might be on the high side largely due to larger more diversified miners still trade on low PE’s"

You might be right to some extent but I see this as a specialised, high technology company and not a commodity stock. We are also not going to be a miner and that might be an important distinction. If we compare ATC's earnings potential (they will be a miner) to their expected 51% share of projected cash flows, the market is, IMO, pricing in a very high PE. That may be due to the limited choice for investors wanting exposure to HPA. That fact alone could see a PE well in excess of 20 if HPA becomes a "hot sector" because of the expected supply deficit. A4N and ATC can't fill that deficit on their own. That also means my base case HPA price might prove very conservative. I think the PE will be higher than what we see for miners but we will only know that after we produce. I expect that a PE of 12 will prove very conservative which is why I ran the numbers on PE ratios into the higher teens.

"For example, until the facility is constructed, which will be post funding you might want to have a 50% discount on a sensitised NPV"

For my near term targets in the 20-30c range, I have more like a 60 - 80% discount on my already risked NPV targets of 80c plus. So I agree with everything that you have posted regarding pricing in risk but I think that the market is currently pricing in too much risk. The sp is still at levels seen before the excellent and consistent pilot plant results were released. Was the market previously fully expecting that great assay results were guaranteed, or is the market just mispricing this stock too much still? I think the latter. 20c plus was touched briefly last week and I think we will see a new high again very soon. I think over the next three - four months with successful funding outcomes (if not sooner), we could see 30c plus. We were at these price levels two years ago. While the chart has become very positive, the current pilot plant success and reduced timeline to production, does not appear factored in yet.

This recent mini correction has helped bring the RSI back down from an overbought level and sets us up for the next rally well into the 20's.