It is surprising to see some sellers still left at levels below...

  1. 15,766 Posts.
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    It is surprising to see some sellers still left at levels below the recent price paid by Regal of 16c for 12.9mill shares (30 Oct 2019) especially after yesterday's (again) positive update. I guess the low liquidity is a two edged sword with a few sellers able to cap the price short term. More volume would be helpful but the tight register will help the sp re-rate much faster when these sellers are done. The top 20 shareholders hold a very large 65% of this company.
    The new mill is fully commissioned and the new large capacity rotary calcining unit has also been commissioned "with assay and XRD data all confirming the calciner can generate alpha-form alumina within impurity limits". The company has previously stated that any further work for the pilot plant is just needed to supply end user demand for product samples for testing and is not needed for completion of the DFS. That means the project is already technically de-risked for completing the DFS and then proceeding with funding. I also expect that funding will be a formality and will not take too long considering the superior economics of the project with very high returns of $265mill EBITDA per year relative to capex of just $200mill. No one is going to need to drag their feet for prolonged periods debating whether they should lend to this company. We also have two state governments competing to get the plant in their state and offering incentives.
    This project will offer far superior returns to our peer, ATC, whose annual EBITDA is just US$76mill compared to our US$199mill and their capital costs are double ours while their operating costs are also near double ours. Yet with those numbers, ATC has secured just under $200mill in debt so far with very good terms. This is why I think we should have no trouble securing funding.
    So if the project is technically de-risked and looks relatively low risk to secure funding, why is any one selling at current prices? It's probably worth thinking about the volume. We only traded around 1.25mill shares yesterday. That was around $180,000 worth and far less significant than the 12.9mill purchased by Regal at 16c so I'm not reading anything into the current sp. When these sellers are soaked up, the low liquidity could see a rapid rally back to recent highs and I still think there is a good chance that we see 20c plus ahead of the DFS.
    Last edited by chuk: 22/11/19
 
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(20min delay)
Last
90.0¢
Change
-0.005(0.55%)
Mkt cap ! $1.023B
Open High Low Value Volume
89.0¢ 91.5¢ 89.0¢ $842.4K 933.3K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
2 23448 87.0¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
90.5¢ 35014 1
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Last trade - 16.10pm 04/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ?
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