Ann: Company Activities Update, page-36

Hi guys, I'm back.
Almost glad to see that there was no news while I was gone as it means I didn't miss out on the action.
It was a great break for me with the highlight being swimming side by side with giant green sea turtles in Hawaii while snorkeling - and not on any paid tour - I came across them on my own which made it so much more enjoyable.
Another eye opener was visiting the Tesla showroom in Honolulu. What fantastic looking cars that these are and the performance statistics are amazing when compared to petrol engines. Who would have dreamed of this a decade ago? There is little doubt that EV's will be the growth story of the next couple of years with so many new models planned to be released world wide over the next 1-2 years. This article highlights 33 EV models that are being added this year alone. A lot more are forecast for the following year and this will only snowball further IMO.
https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/electric/future-electric-cars-upcoming-evs/
New model releases include a decent range of pick up trucks; something that up to very recently, I would not have expected for at least another 3-5 years considering these are heavier vehicles designed to pull serious loads.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidundercoffler/2019/11/25/teslas-cybertruck-will-face-these-rivals/#47cb554a7487

When might EV sales overtake combustion engine vehicle sales?
Porsche's CEO is talking of the "tipping point" for EV sales in the next decade and probably "sooner rather than later" .He discusses a tipping point as early as 2022-2025 being realistic. Very good timing for A4N.


To answer your question on HPA oversupply risk, the best guide we have are the consultants that are predicting a deficit over at least the next 5-8 years. The most recent I have seen was commissioned by HPA rival ATC and released in July last year.






With so many developments over the last year on EV's, I think all of the forecasts we have seen to date on HPA demand growth, are going to be proven conservative. I don't know how the supply side will cope (the study above allows for that growth when estimating deficits) but I do think deficits could be stronger than expected. Current producers are higher cost and might ramp up, but with their higher costs I don't see them as a threat to A4N's growth story. You have to wonder if some of them might have their eye on A4N. Is there an easier way to increase production and at a much lower cost? Things could get interesting after the DFS is released. Potential partners which may give us a big valuation re-rating, or even potential acquirers, will not need to wait on 100% financing completion.

The chart is still in a strong uptrend with the price consolidating at a high level after last month's high. We have not had any exponential move as yet and I see this as a strong buy on this current consolidation ahead of plenty of news to come early this quarter.