So SM69 E2 - " The E2 is expected to fully recover the cost of...

So

SM69 E2 - " The E2 is expected to fully recover the cost of drilling and completion in October 2022, 12 months after first production due to stable rates and current commodity pricing" - Excellent. This is exactly what my spreadsheet has been predicting. The downside is that the "rules change" when BYE has been paid out for the drilling cost. The other owning party gets to chose which way they want to go. So I don't know the %. I expect an announcement in November. While Boys1 has correctly pointed out the over run in drilling costs, at the time of the drill, I am putting this in the win column as it's been paid for and is giving us real cash flow. Dare I say Profit?

SM71 F1,F2,F3,F4, F5. - No real news. waiting on boat to reconnect F2 and F4. Probably cost $USD2M? F2 last reconnection cost $1M as I remember.

SM58 G3 - looking good. J sand first, then K4/B65 next. Looking for 500-1000 BOPD. If we make 670 BOPD then we have another SM69 E2. At a Boys1 predicted cost of $15M (half of $30M) which is better than SM69 drill cost ($US18M?). So at these oil prices I expect a pay back of 9-10 months if not sooner.

SM58 G5 - L2 first then N2. L2 was a gift horse we did not expect. Let's say the reconnection costs is $1M (ie the previous cost for F2 reconnection) to N2 and oil is at $100 and BYE get 80%. Then we need to make 12,500 BO to break even on this little adventure. We started at 800 BOPD, we are running at 500 BOPD. Let's say the average for the next 50 days is 250BOPD. On this bases we break even. Yes we get free gas, Yes " This work can be achieved without the use of a rig, utilizing more cost-effective coil tubing equipment placed on the SM58 G platform." and so it hopefully will not cost $1M but on the other side of the equation the LL futures market seems to think oil will be dropping below $100.

Bye moving forward. It looks like BYE will be concentrating on the SM71 reconnection of F2 and F4 while they wait for SM58 G5 L2 to run dry. Assuming that N2 (BYE original target) is a success and pays for the drill then L2 is little more than a distraction which will probably pay for itself and the SM71 reconnection. I am not expect big things from either F2 or F4 reconnection's. But with oil prices where they are, the reconnection's might pay for themselves and give enough money for a nice BYE Xmas party.

News horizon, which will move the SP needle. The first will be the N2 reconnection on G5. Then and only then, will we find out if G5 is looking like a success. Stabilised BOPD from G3 will be another news day. Other than that, we have to wait till Dec 2022 for the next 3 maybe 4 drills. I am hoping that we have done enough "Small deals drills" (ie drills with multiple targets and a high chance of success) to pay for a few ballsy drills. ie One large target, strategically drilled, another SM71 F3 would be nice. After all, are we hunting field mice or Bison?

All disclaimers.