PME 0.00% $111.41 pro medicus limited

The tweet says:"If PME runs its top line at 40% for the next 5...

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    The tweet says:
    "If PME runs its top line at 40% for the next 5 years and doesn't add a cent to its costs,
    you are paying 20 x 2026 EPS."

    Presumably the improbable possibility that PME "doesn't add a cent to its costs” was included as a rhetorical flourish to emphasise the tweeter’s point about PME’s high valuation.

    Maybe the tweeter meant something else but If we take the tweet as it reads, it is wrong about the recent SP being as much as 20 times the estimated 2026 earnings.
    If the latest half result is annualised, with a slight weighting to the second half (ie multiply by 2.05), the estimate for FY22 annual revenue is $90.9m, costs are $31.8m, tax 28.2% and profit is $42.4m .
    Then, 40% growth for 5 years takes the revenue to $488.8m, minus the tweeter’s rhetorically invariant costs of $31.8m, which leaves $457m, which after tax yields a profit of $328.2m.
    This equates to an EPS of $3.13, which on a price of $46.57, equates to a PE of 14.9, not the 20 that the tweeter asserted.
    If the tweeter really meant something else about costs, such as “and doesn't suffer any decline in margin”, then that’s not what he wrote.

    And in any case, if PME’s revenue grew at even half that rate for the next 5 years, there is no way that it would then be valued at a PE of only 20.
    So, the tweet is misdirection on a couple of levels, for what purpose, if any, I can only speculate.

    Judging by PME's strength on Tuesday, it looked like somebody had decided that the BS has gone on for long enough.
    Given the buy-back notice this morning, it looks like the "somebody" might be the company itself.
    They only bought 0.8% of Tuesday’s turnover but perhaps others spotted that the company's broker was buying.

    Anyway, the notice is a strong signal that the company thinks there is value in their own shares at the current levels.
    Even at the recent lower prices, I concede that it is still pretty highly priced, so what does the company know that the market doesn't?
    Well, apart from anything else, they can see what's coming down the contract pipeline.

    Cheers
    Last edited by Downanout: 23/02/22
 
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