Ann: Company Chair and CEO Address to Shareholders, page-9

First 9 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
roughie12

2,261 Posts.

323

28/10/21

19:12

Post #: 57156843
Share

Originally posted by dabozza: ↑

I have not done a DCF for MVP, as I think the assumptions using that method would be really rubbery. I think the revenue per whistle in Europe is around AUD$75 a pop. With regards to margins, not sure, as they have moved all over the place of late. We'll be able to get a better picture of this when the ramp up in sales and marketing slows down - maybe end of FY22, but probably FY23.

My preferred valuation method is to consider the potential takeover price. In the end, if MVP succeeds, that's probably the best outcome for shareholders (sorry, I know that's not the objective). My guess is by FY25, $850m market cap company which is around $12 per share.

Essentially my best guess would be if US-FDA approval is provided, Penthrox should have peak sales of around $250m. This figure is based on prior estimates by MVP, but I think that's not so far out of the realm of possibility. A rule of thumb for phase 3 drugs is 3xpeak sales, so using a conservative multiple like that, you could see a potential price of $750m. If that sounds ridiculous, just remember that MVP was trading at $12 once on the expectation of global growth.

The medical devices is less important. But if they are able to expand to ~$20m by FY25 with their US expansion, then medical devices typically trade at 5xsales. So that's about $100m too. This may be a bit generous, but it's not so material.

They have sufficient cash. I spoke with the CFO and they weren't worried about having to go back for capital raise, at least not in the near term. They could also sell medical devices if they needed the cash, but not anything they have planned. So you can basically assume the shares on issue won't change substantially from here.

Expand

Thanks mate great over view, i honestly believe MVP will be $20 plus in the next 5 of so years so long and staying long.

So much potential with MVP and yes was $12 not that long ago on hype, now they have full control and seem confident on USA and Chaina market entry by around 2025 by that time Europe will be flying

MVP Price at posting: $4.71 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

HAS

Hastings progressing Yangibana to production with lower costs

ACW

Actinogen Medical ramps up Alzheimer’s treatment trials, targeting fast-track global approvals

COD

Coda Minerals (ASX:COD) enters rights issue to further exploration in South Australia

ZNC

Zenith's sale of Develin Creek delivers $975K cash, with shares up 13%

The iron ore comeback: Can it last?

There are more pages in this discussion • 7 more messages in this thread...

First 9 Last

Add MVP (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 44.0¢		Change 0.010(2.33%)		Mkt cap ! $49.56M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
44.0¢	45.0¢	44.0¢	$19.63K	44.31K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	19159	44.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
45.0¢	885	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	19159	0.440
2	10822	0.435
2	35395	0.430
4	6140	0.425
1	9572	0.415

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.450	885	1
0.460	2500	1
0.470	1642	1
0.480	47250	3
0.485	7000	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 30/09/2024 (20 minute delay)

MVP (ASX) Chart

Ann: Company Chair and CEO Address to Shareholders, page-9

Hastings progressing Yangibana to production with lower costs

Actinogen Medical ramps up Alzheimer’s treatment trials, targeting fast-track global approvals

Coda Minerals (ASX:COD) enters rights issue to further exploration in South Australia

Zenith's sale of Develin Creek delivers $975K cash, with shares up 13%

The iron ore comeback: Can it last?

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Ann: Company Chair and CEO Address to Shareholders, page-9

Top Stories

Hastings progressing Yangibana to production with lower costs

Actinogen Medical ramps up Alzheimer’s treatment trials, targeting fast-track global approvals

Coda Minerals (ASX:COD) enters rights issue to further exploration in South Australia

Zenith's sale of Develin Creek delivers $975K cash, with shares up 13%

The iron ore comeback: Can it last?

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News