Counting the 45 million sold for 20c, in the last three trading days I think there have been around 83 million shares traded under 25c and, given the whole conversion and on-sell thing was clearly organised well in advance, I am a bit suspicious of the company’s theories it was the delayed government contract that caused the price to drop so hard after the Quarterly update.
Here’s a thumbnail of a candlestick chart since the Quarterly ;
-Retrospectively it looks to me as if there has been lots of profit taking .
As @golden6 noted on the director selling thread, this includes all the many options that have been recently converted and which seem to have been quickly sold. This last (huge) assault on the price has not so far found any volume buyers with the confidence ‘ to step into the void ‘.
Further to this grumbling: As there are ASX-savvy people on the board including Adam Davey, also a director at Patersons, who has been a stockbroker for at least 33 years (https://www.businessnews.com.au/Person/Adam-Davey) - I expect the people at the top were not naive about what was going to happen.
This has reignited my dislike for what I perceive as the somewhat ‘fluffy’ Singapore announcement as, in retrospect, it looks to me as if there wad a clear goal to build price to coincide with options releases.
I guess that is just what goes on and caveat emptor and all that, but I don’t like being one of the ‘mug punter’ shareholders who bought shares over 30c and then again at 26c.
PRESENTATION :
Now catalysts for the price to lift from these levels (?) and newsflow (which may not lift the price) from the presentation are shown in the above image along with some timing hints;
FWIW I’m adding my thoughts to those of all the others ;
1) First revenue from Australian government expected - Q4 2019
Well this is expected and so I expect it is already factored into the price ?
2) Signing of large well known aged care providers announced – Q4 19 / Q1 20
- Maybe one in UK and one in NZ?
As a perennially naive investor I think, depending on how big these deals are, there might be some confidence coming back. But I also feel the market will be a bit antsy about what, if anything, will come out of the Philips Healthworks program and negotiations, and it is likely that some may know beforehand so it will be interesting to see just how much any good news from plural large RACs will affect the price?
3)Govt contract signed and expansion of Australian customer base – Q4 2019
-that’s already been signed? But maybe there will be that rumoured $5 million extra?
...the market would like that A LOT? ... but it is not an egg one can count until it’s been laid?
4)First UK sales of Enterprise Dementia product - Q4 2019
And
5) First NZ sales of Enterprise Dementia product - Q4 2019
I think these relate to point 2) and so count more as newsflow than price catalysts.
6) Commence FDA de Novo clinical trial for Adult product – Q1 2020
How will this be funded ? Who is doing the trial?
- it will be interesting to find out
7) Philips Healthcare programme update - Q1 2020
-ditto ... it will be interesting to find out (including about what levels the share price has regained )
And
8) Launch Enterprise Dementia product into multiple new countries - 1H 2020
Multiple new countries must be European ones? Ireland plus some others?
(I joined points 7) and 8) in the image at the top in case there was any link between Philips and the LED launch )
9) TGA and CE Mark submission for Pre-verbal Children product – 2H 2020
10)Launch DTC dementia product in Australia and Europe - 2H 2020
11)FDA de Novo clearance for US market - expected 2H 2020
12)Government trial outcomes research report - Q4 2020
And I left all these important H2 catalysts in a bunch and underlined the H2 dates in the image because it will be option season again with (at least?) 3,448,276 options arriving at 25c a share on June 30 (according to the last annual report), and the 45 million newly escrowed directors shares liberated around November 27, 2020.
-I have become a bit allergic to them even if they are good for the company
13) Launch Pre-verbal Children product in Aus / EU - early 2021
14) Launch Enterprise Dementia in US - expected early 2021
By early 2021 things will hopefully be very (positively) different?
-Ideally by now the patient holders will be feeling very secure, even those who afe newly arrived at current prices and higher .
Finally here’s an old scrap of wisdom from a very clever trader who inspires me often.
“
Treat speculative equities as 'shocks and scares', not 'stocks and shares'”
Cheers
(20min delay)