Hello Riv
Nice to meet you and thank you and yes, whilst we share a lot of (potentially dangerous) confirmation bias here.....(
https://www.magellangroup.com.au/insights/10-cognitive-biases-that-can-lead-to-investment-mistakes/)
.........this forum is also a stand out for the sharing of up to date research.
The trick (for me anyway ) is to try not to get bogged in the bias.
My average price in my SMSF is 27.5 and 26.5 in my ‘so-called’ trading account (which sadly I still tend to treat more as an interesting aquarium than an ‘orchard’ I can repeatedly either weed or harvest from. This shows how I do get caught up in bias so don’t rely on my opinions, although I
do try to link my research!
Hi golden .... I don’t think anyone around here is ever the ‘only one’
But in regards Phillip ‘working’ a special relationship with
@GCInvestor ...i think he owes her.
I can’t find my post sharing the background with the links but - as noted below- GC made an ‘off the cuff’ comment to the then health minister (back in 2017?) which led to his interest in a little dementia-aid company he had previously never heard of .
And ‘dot, dot and dot’ is what happened next.
I will link the post again for anyone new when I find it .
Cheers .
Thanks guys but I think I’d be feeling somewhat more of a legend if I had put stop losses on my higher purchases and was using the proceeds to buy back in around now or - perish the thought- even lower.
At the moment I am wondering where the company would be without
@GCInvestor piquing the interest of the then health minister, Ken Wyatt, which led to all the months of work leading up to the
government grant.
Her initial prompts set up a situation that has created a solid start towards market saturation in Australia, also publicity and reputation, and especially many millions of dollars for PCK and for option holders who sold shares......And GC, if you were not given any indication it might be a good time to set some of your shares free in the lead up to this situation, I think it’s reprehensible because -clearly- some people were.
At this point, as an aside;
One of the reasons I have enormous respect for good TA is it can shine a light into the mushroom box where small fry punters are often kept.
My respect for and delight in
@Saragian is no secret, and there are other excellent TA people here too, who post charts and comment.
As an example of how (Wyckoff-based?) technical analysis can see beyond bias and spin note the (uncanny?) technical
predictions on PCK from
@Jamieevie [post 18/11/19] an important fortnight ago, and on the current situation
[post 28/11/19].
- the most recent chart notes previous supply levels will be crucial to watch.
As I see it, they are the levels disgruntled smaller holders who bought in at higher prices will exit - regardless of PCK’s potential, and also the levels big players with ‘yo yo’ intentions will be either feeding into new demand (based on ‘good news’ catalysts) ... or not . (How good is that ‘good news?’ )
I guess that was not so much of an aside after all as it feeds back to those Price Catalysts roughly timed in the presentation
For me the big (known) ones due in the next few weeks are
- how big are the new large enterprise sign ups
- How will that FDA study be funded, and who is doing it ( I presume it will take six to nine months given the timing hints in the presentation) and imagine it is already organised and needs go get underway asap so will be announced early
- What will arise out of the negotiations with Philips? I imagine this is already sorted or mostly sorted as the Healthworks Presentation Day on around 12-16 December seems to function as a bit of an ‘auction block’ for interested companies besides Philips and if Philips has dibs on Painchek this will be a factor in the presentation?
And, apart from some sign ups in new countries (size unknown) that is basically it for the next six months?
As to what’s going on behind the scenes and what has happened to the share price.
I guess there was no opportunity for new big investors last time the price was in this range?
But they certainly have had plenty of opportunity to buy in higher when all the earlier option holders converted and were flooding the market (along with other profit takers?)
The long term health/security of Painchek is more important to me than short term stings.
But I note the stings.
@Red bar said he was going to Tecknow as he had a interest in the company at that time and wanted to know more. ...And previously, if he bought in, people would notice? That there was no more comment is interesting.
- I do not know who you are, Red bar, but I do know you are a valued poster elsewhere who has contact with other management.
From what you wrote I assume you have substantial investment capabilities.
Did you ever buy PCK shares after your meeting with David Allsopp, or do you intend to?
Cheers
And - also regards Tecknow - the data collection on cost savings?
As this also has potential to be a price catalyst, but was not mentioned in the presentation, am still curious about how it is going and when/if the results of this study will be announced ( David Allsopp spoke of the study to
@Double Down at Tecknow;
[see their post 25/10/19 ]
..“They are currently collecting data on savings from removing the over prescribing drugs in order to make a financial argument for using PainChek.”
Cheers
