Ann: Company presentation, page-265

I assume that’s a 12-month price target from Morgan Stanley? It’s certainly plausible that YAL could reach that price within the next 12 months, especially if coal prices remain strong, but its most unlikely that $7.85 will be achieved in the next few weeks or months (in my view). YAL will continue to trade strongly, most likely, over the next 6 trading days, but expect a sharp fall (more than 32.5c) when the stock goes ex dividend on 12 March. What comes after that is a matter for debate, but I’d expect a period of consolidation and relative dormancy over the period May—July, followed by another upturn in the lead-up to the next dividend announcement in August.

All of that may be hopelessly wrong, of course — there are no sure bets here — but I’m planning my own trading strategy on those assumptions.

PS: For those looking for a (close to) sure bet, the NSW TAB is offering $2.75 on St Kilda to make the 8!