Ann: Company presentation, page-274

Yes, a drop of some 50c looks likely when YAL goes ex div on 12 March (32.5c for the dividend itself and the rest for the franking credits). At the same time last year the stock fell by $1.16 on 14 March when it went ex dividend — 70c for the dividend and the rest (mostly) for the franking credits. It then wandered fairly aimlessly for a few months before falling to lows of less than $4.50 in the shoulder season. The obvious difference this time around is that coal prices are strengthening again, not weakening — which should provide some decent protection against further falls post 12 March.