The arbitrage is interesting here. I had a quick scan to compare...

The arbitrage is interesting here. I had a quick scan to compare and the thin nature of 3668 makes it tricky to find comparable days for a starting point. Remove the noise by going weekly/monthly... time shift the starting point... For the overwhelming majority of starting points for percent comparison, 3668 trades at a discount to YAL. I note fx has moved by about 10% during the chart below.

.

While not discounting your observations, I think it's more noise than anything. I'm currently looking for a paradigm shift in the general public so that their funds flow in. I feel that'll be the rerate driver. A collapse of their climate narrative is the most likely correlation event. For them to change their minds they need to stop believing in their utopia. The trouble with our climate friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so. Maybe it'll be the failure of EV uptake or the shock of war with Taiwan... however it's so difficult to pick... the more illegal immigrants crossing into Texas from Mexico, the more diluted the mass, the less chance of war... so it becomes their climate narrative... when will their fake science collapse or the most fundamental driver towards coal... cold and hunger... with unconstrained immigration into Australia causing homelessness and inflation pressures, could this be the trigger of the uniting of Australia under One Nation to drive our coal mines forward?

.

.