Originally posted by Jimmy_C
Hi Andy
I'm Australian but relocated to the US for work about five years ago, and to some extent I'll probably always consider the ASX to be my "home" market regardless of where I live. I'm not sure I have any particular insights as to which markets are cheaper than others as I tend to be a "bottom up" rather than top down person, but I try to know just enough macro to know roughly where to start looking. This applies to sectors and countries - for the sake of example, i know just enough macro to be aware there are stinking cheap coal and offshore oil service stocks on many exchanges (as conditions or investor aversion in those sectors is horrendous), and, for example, I know just enough to be aware stocks in Italy, UK and South Africa are relatively cheap now because of investor aversion / bad macro. More broadly though, there are almost always plenty of cheap stocks on any given exchange at any point in time - the trick is turning over enough rocks to find them and having some filters to sift through the rubble.
I don't have a view as to whether Aus is relatively cheap or expensive, but I own 9 stocks at the moment, none of which are ASX-listed, and that's usually simply because I have found something i preferred that's listed elsewhere. For example:
- Offshore oil sucks now so assets are cheap, and in Aus I looked at MRM and once owned MCE but options are limited. However, the US has dozens of stocks with offshore oil exposure, and I simply found a few I preferred on valuation grounds (TTI and PHII)
- Coal also sucks (well, investor aversion is high at least, and thermal genuinely does suck) and there are limited options in Aus, so I would rather own CNTE and NRP (US listed).
- I could pay 20x EBITDA or something silly like that to own JIN, but I'd much rather own JPJ on the LSE at 6-7x EBITDA.
- Maybe they've traded off now but last I looked the listed auto guys (APE etc.) traded at double digit EBITDA multiples, so I'd rather own CAMB listed in London at half the valuation (identical business model, same economics etc.)
- I could buy some blue chip infra yield stock like SYD or TCL at mid teens EBITDA multiples, or I could buy a blue chip US listed MLP at high single digit EBITDA multiples and near double digit (and growing) dividend yields.
Not sure if that answered your question or was at all helpful, but that's how I tend to think about it.
Cheers
our topic of discussion made me think you may find this talk with Andrew Clifford (CEO/CIO of PTM) interesting. He also notes the relative value currently seen in markets outside Australia (and the US). Particularly in sectors which are pushing through the floor in terms of investor optimism. A few of note that PTM have been buying up:
