PGC 4.76% 44.0¢ paragon care limited

Ann: Company Update & Earnings Outlook, page-10

  1. 1,524 Posts.
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    I hope you are right, and just remember the discontinued business(es) were once acquisitions... and it seems the synergies were never realised with these now discontinued business(es), on top of that, the promise of synergies and cost reductions has been around for 2 years or more now and not really occured (if we're all honest) to a great extent. 

    At the end of the day, the unfortunate reality is, when you take out this one off 'lease adjustment' (of $4m) and include -$5m of discontinued business contribution (or lack of) to EBITDA, aka comparing year on year actual (reported) EBITDA, the 'real' FY19 number is looking to be only a tad ($1m ish) more than FY18 (which was actually $18.2m - again, once you include "costs of approximately $1.5m largely related to acquisitions), yet, and most importantly, capital issued has gone up 40%... so if we look at the 'hard numbers' reported FY19 EBITDA looks to be coming in at $19m (assuming no upgrades or downgrades), and the market cap is $175m (even after todays double digit percentage drop)... PGC is on a forward PE/EBITDA of 9.2x... that isn't expensive, but far from cheap, and hence I have changed my sentiment to Sell. 
    Last edited by investor_jackson: 12/02/19
 
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