PGC 2.25% 43.5¢ paragon care limited

Ann: Company Update & Earnings Outlook, page-25

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  1. 1,046 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 40
    Easy enough done to cherry pick those figures and present a short term doom and gloom scenario...

    Interestingly if you take the $240m FY19 revenues, apply the organic growth of 9%, gives FY20 revenue of circa $261m.

    - add cost reduction of at least $3m (commented as being greater than $3m)
    - subtract the supposed -4m one off gain on the lease adjustment
    - add the +5m back from the discontinued business one off charge

    Gives and EBITDA of around $33.5m, against current market cap of 172.6m has the 2020 forward PE of 5.15, which I'd argue is pretty good value.

    Amazing how you can skew things to present a negative short term picture. For PGC, FY19 is a year of immense change that contained a multitude of one offs and complexities from the many acquisitions. Perhaps the focus should be towards FY20, which if you want to believe management projections certainly shows PGC with some considerable promise.


    As I mentioned above, I personally see this as an excellent short term buying opportunity as doubt the SP will be around this level in 6-12mths time, as looks well overdone in my opinion.

    all IMO, DYOR etc...
 
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