Ann: Company Update - Key Developments, page-278

The key point here is related to de-risking.
100’s of millions aren’t going to get spent until the partner is comfortable that the company can ultimately deliver what is of value to them - the desired product and return on their investment.
Govt approval is required before work can commence, also (of course), but this has essentially zero technical de-risking value wrt production viability.
Why hasn’t a partner signed a conditional agreement? We can only guess; the company probably knows… but they sure don’t seem particularly concerned about whether it will actually happen. Iirc JZ noted a while back that the strategic deal was not reliant on the 2ktpa plant running, and he would know better than anyone.
In my experience, permitting is usually not the driver of investment (although required for actual project works), just look at some other companies that have permits but no funding. Dyor.
My take is that JZ is negotiating a favourable deal (never a rapid process, at least in my experience) and perhaps the preferred partner is in no hurry to sign (even a conditional agreement) as they might think they can draw out a better deal (maybe they’ve been listening to GS’s predictions LOL). Perhaps JZ is drawing it out to get a better deal for holders, knowing that whether they signed 6 months ago or tomorrow doesn’t really change the timing of revenue significantly.
I have high confidence is that there are multiple factors in play and it is nowhere near as simple as most would like it to be. The board members have likely been assisting JZ and Pablo to weigh up (and strategise on) the pros/cons/options/issues for a while now.

Pablo and co have been flat out with 2ktpa plant build and commissioning (note that 2ktpa initial plant stage approach was decided years ago) so not much would have happened on expansion build if the expansion money was on the table recently anyway. The detailed expansion design, afaik, was always dependent on the 2ktpa plant tweaking, so iirc this was always a series process - ie. prove the 2ktpa plant operates successfully/consistently/reliably and then build the expansion incorporating all learnings/specs/mods/tweaks from the smaller plant; this ensures “mistakes” are not replicated, costs minimised, and subsequent commissioning is as smooth and rapid as possible.
The notion that the protracted expansion permitting has added multiple years to the project just doesn’t add up. At all.
The partnership details, funding commitment, FID, construction timing etc etc depends on a combination of de-risking factors (technically and financially), with permits playing a role but not the primary one, by any means, in my experience. Dyor.

Also, iirc, the ASX disclosure requirements allow for some reprieve while a deal (or similar) is still under negotiations; so just because the company hasn’t announced details of the proposed strategic partnership, does not necessarily/automatically mean that “nothing” has been agreed on yet - it certainly could be significantly advanced, with final details constituting the remaining “negotiations” and thereby allowing the companies to keep everything confidential until finalised if they so choose. In some cases, companies want the fact that they are even in negotiations at all to be confidential, particularly if they are trying to cut deals with other companies also and don’t want them aware of each other. We might find out later, but for now have minimal insight/detail. Tough but that’s business.

Imo, at the 6-7 year mark now, with what we have achieved to date, you either trust they can and will deliver, or you don’t, based on the info available and your own critical analysis. I certainly do, and a month or 6 here or there means jack sh!t in the scheme of things and on the way to where we are headed. Too many armchair experts with few facts and many assumptions, relatively-baselessly insulting the company with only a vague idea of the realities, imo.

If you invested here with a reasonable expectation of say 6/7/8/9 years from JV to production…. Then you have nothing substantial to really complain about imo. It seems to me that it’s those who try to catch the say 3/6/12 month period of massive sp growth via company-making catalysts that end up whining about “guidance” and “timelines” etc etc. We’ve seen it again and again over the years.
Ask yourself - how’s that tactic working out for them? This industry requires significant patience, serious expectations management. extensive research and solid conviction, imo, and the payoff can be massive.


DYOR people
Not advice
Imo

GLTMost


- the clock must have lithium batteries; I can still hear it going … tick tock
$$$