Looking at the scoping study and sensitivity analysis it seems pretty clear to me the priority is to define near mine open pit high grade reserves at majestic and fingals, that will make a massive difference to ASIC and free cash flow in year 2-4. The obvious assumption is that they mine the ~46koz from Myhree open pit primarily in year 1 even though they have mining majestic UG in year 1 I reckon once we get some higher grade reserves outside of the fingals open pit that would take priority.
With a 500ktpa plant @2.4gt thats essentially ~$40mill cash flow per annum assuming a OP grade of 2.3g/t
If they CR 70mill shares @0.75 to raise $50mill that should cover plant and mining initial costs
that would leave us with ~200m shares on issue generating $40mill pa cash flow. or an earnings of ~20c per share
Now, working backwards with taking a PE of 10 which is modest, gives us $2 per share. Obviously there are alot of variables, some of those are:
Assumption of POG
Assumption of shares on issue, eg they could debt fund some rather the dilute
Assumption that they can find the extra OP reserves at fingals and majestic
Here are some scenarios of share price based on shares on issue
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