GBZ 11.1% 1.0¢ gbm resources limited

Ann: Company Update Presentation, page-12

  1. 18 Posts.
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    Back of the envelope FA for this year, FWIW...

    24 Sept 2021 – Taylor Collison Research Report:
    "Our analysis indicates that a representative selection of these companies has a weighted average EV/oz of equity gold of A$43/oz, with a range of A$13/oz to A$120/oz. GBM is currently trading at ~A$27/oz (including Twin Hills)."
    [SP and Au are roughly the same as time of publication (resource was ~1.5Moz)]

    This year has many potential catalysts for a re-rate (as pointed out in the pressos). If GBM were to be just 'average' in terms of the above, that's a 60% increase in EV.

    If GBM 'easily' increase resource to 2Moz, that's a 33% increase on top. This is roughly 210% EV.
    If GBM increase resource to 3Moz, that's a 100% increase on top. Roughly 320% EV.

    This puts the MC (all things being equal) in the range of 95m to 150m this year, on the basis of the assumptions above. I.e., SP 18c ... 28c.

    Of course, if there's a shift in macro sentiment and the gold price moves up suddenly, well, I guess we're sitting on a gold mine. All bets are off.
 
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