I'll go back to this post of mine to explain what I think is happening in the vanadium sector more generally - Post #: 37712728
The other thing that has dawned on me is that Largo's entire production is sold to Saint Glencore, yes the entity that likes paying minimal tax worldwide and likes whinging and whining about tax but don't know why the whinging as it pays little anyway, with that agreement set to expire in mid 2020. Glencore also owns a few of the world's only producing vanadium mines. What Largo does in 2020 is important IMO to breaking Glencore's stranglehold on vanadium supply. If you go back to Windimurra there were two lines of thought at the time, been i.) Glencore closing the mine for its own price manipulation means and/or ii.) the mine put up the wrong capital which was a problem in that the recovery rates were lower than expected. I am in the latter camp by the way, but closing Windimurra at the time and then essentially demolition of the facilities at the mineste, so that the issues couldn't be resolved at a lower capex cost, also may have advantaged Glencore IMO in a shot term price sense but friability issues were the main factor there IMO - Refer Post #: 37370812.
Anyway, the next vanadium player, whoever that is, it will be interesting who the offtake agreement is with, and I certainly would not want it to be with Glencore. Glencore's oligopoly/monopoly control of vanadium supply into the market needs to be broken itself and/or any potential strategy it may have in buying any emerging vanadium players etc I also hope that we (or any new emerging player) can get an Offtake partner that is not Chinese based as a means to make the Chinese play its moves in this cat and mouse game. The new rebar standards itself should lead to a doubling of vanadium in each unit of steel production in China, and I keep thinking and reading how good the outlook for vanadium is, but then see SP of virtually all emerging vanadium plays on the slide, noting those already in production are not likely to be able to keep up with demand growth given their resource levels per se IMO. As I said, this is intriquing in itself, and at some point the market will wake up IMO, but don't know when.
https://*********.com.au/china-new-vanadium-steel-rebar-standards/
In any event VA is moving a little slow for my liking at this stage noting what TMT is doing, and more so the fact TMT has already lodged some paperwork with the EPA to get that process rolling too - Post #: 37578894. Just wondering if he is into Bob Dylan and keeps playing that album Slow Train Coming too much.
Meeting timelines a key here, and I note the next Ann for AVL is the resource upgrade due April, and therefter the MET tests (albeit that timeline of delivery of results has not been stated but they are due to commence April and I would expect them to be done by June as they are important in feeding into the DFS). Failure to meet timelines will be a concern as the window for opportunity IMO is getting tight, and at this stage and to be frank TMT appears too me to be in front of AVL in getting to market despite both stating they will be in production mid 2021 (so AVL does need to get a move on to meet that date). Both been likely low cost mines IMO means the economics is still good at US$10 per pound V205, so it is about risk appetite and forcing your move into the market by been proactive, and that means yabbering to al potential customers IMO.
All IMO after a night on the VB LOL
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