SKY AND SPACE COMPANY LTD (ASX:SAS) - Ann: Company Update- Two New MoUs and Update on GomSpace Contract, 37064629, page-132 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

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pkent60

40 Posts.

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09/01/19

09:41

Post #: 37064629
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Originally posted by aniesbaswedan ↑

I want to try to alleviate all the misinformation about and the topic of 3 billion people by considering all the evidence;

To start, lets talk about the extent of SAS coverage,

In the presentation below, dated 11 September 2017;

https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/sas/7bbade01-b9a.pdf

Slide 13 has a map that clearly indicates the coverage area complete with latitude. So SAS services seems to be intended to cover areas 15-18 degrees from the equator.

A similar map to the one that is depicted in that particular presentation appears again in slide 5 from presentation dated 26th November 2018. So I think the evidence is firm.

So @kambiz999, from that it could be safely concluded that the current relevant constellation would not cover the Sahara, which would render all your points surrounding that argument, moot.

As for the claim about 3 billion people;

To start, listen to the podcast below featuring Meir himself;

https://telecomreseller.com/2018/12/13/podcast-nano-satellites-provide-low-cost-service-to-rural-locations/

In the podcast, I understood Meir mentions how 40 percent of the global population live in areas where there is no connectivity or communication capability at all. Then he mentions something around 3 billion people. So I think that is pretty concrete.

@kambiz999, You said, "This is not what I ever thought. There is no such thing as 3 billion people on earth with zero access to connectivity". From my understanding, Meir seems to think that there is.

So when SAS mentions 3 billion, presumably they mean globally not just equator.

From what I understood him saying, SAS business model is not to compete but merely to provide complementary option for carriers to tap into an untapped market. This makes sense because from what I understood from the interview SAS business model entails not dealing with end users but instead offer their services to carriers. This, I believe, would render SAS unable to be in a position to have any influence with prices. So I believe that would, effectively, render the argument that people have about cheaper services by means of introducing competition with existing services, moot.

Now lets go back to the ever popular number, ie. 3 billion "unconnected" people.

Lets do some rough basic calculation:

Total population of :
SEA - roughly 641 million
South America - roughly 422 million
Africa - roughly 1216 million
Sri Lanka - roughly 21 million
South India - roughly 252 million
Total population: Roughly 2.552 billion

So the number is roughly 445 million short of 3 billion.

The calculation also includes the entire population of that region. This obviously is inaccurate because the area of service we are talking about is limited to 15-18 degrees from equator. So the number is supposed to be way less. Also if we take into account all the well connected, especially in tech savvy SEA then the numbers would be incomparably less. From memory, I think Meir mentions in the podcast how only 20 percent of Nigerians are unconnected and average 50 percent of the whole africa? Correct me if I am wrong there.

So Nigeria has a population of roughly 190 million and 20 percent of that is 38 million.

Africa has 1216 million living in it, if we substract obvious countries not covered in Africa,

Egypt 97.5
Algeria 41.5
Morocco 36
Libya 6.5
South Africa 56
Nigeria connected 162
Total of roughly 400 million

So we are left with 816 million and only .50 of that is unconnected. So then presumably SAS only has 408 million potential customer in Africa.

Overall, I think SAS potential customer number is around 750 million or way less from equatorial region. Whatever the number is, it is definitely not 3 billion like people seems to believe.

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Last edited by pkent60: If its only 750 million bring it on I say 09/01/19

SAS Price at posting: 4.7¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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