BBG 0.00% $1.05 billabong international limited

there is copyright on it so not sure how much I can show.But...

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  1. 14,170 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 118
    there is copyright on it so not sure how much I can show.
    But here is a summary
    BBG has confirmed that neither bidder has walked away
    The question is price
    The view is it will be between $1 and 80c
    citi thinks that should no deal be struck the price will fall to between 62 and 83 cents
    another analyst thinks there may be an equity raising.
    The key to the to deal is gordon merchant
    chances are he will go with his friend Paul Naude.
    However the company is obliged to look at what VF/Altamont has offer.

    My view is that the main player in the surf market is Quicksilver
    It commands reveunue of $2bn BBG's reveenue is $1.3bn


    At the moment looking at the market capitalisation of the two companies, BBG revenue stream appears the cheaper.
    For every $1 of revenue ZQK produces shareholders pay 50c (1/2=.50) and for every dollar of revenue BBG produces shareholders pay 28c (365/1600= .28)
    ZQK embarked to a similar cost cutting exercise as that of BBG. However they started theirs earlier. already it is showing results.
    IMO their is no reason why BBG can't do the same.
    I'd be very surprised if either party walks away.
    In fact this is the way I see it.
    One party lobs in a reduced offer of around 80c. The other follows with a slightly higher offer
    This will then be followed by another and so on
    Eventually we will be over the $1.10 mark and beyond.
    Remember ZQK is not in play and shareholders are paying 50c for each $1 of revenue
    BBG shareholders are paying 28c for each $1
    Let's say a bid comes in at say 50c for each $1
    what will BBG be worth?
    1300 x .50 = $650m
    $650/478m = $1.36
    I'm not saying that we will get there as clearly ZQK is in better shape than BBG, but if both bidder stay we could be looking at something in the $1.30 mark

    Just have a look at what ZQK would be worth if it was going to be taken over
    There'd have to be a 20% takeover premium so you'd be look at 60c for every $1 of revenue for a start.



 
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